Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Mann
Justin Guthrie
75%
25%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Mann: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Guthrie: 1 sig / 1 TD
Steve Mann
Justin Guthrie
47
Sig strikes landed
44
108
Sig strikes attempted
112
62
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Steve Mann
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Blue corner
Justin Guthrie
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
34