Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Adam Cella
Kyle Kurtz
56%
44%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cella: 30 sig / 4 TD ·
Kurtz: 11 sig / 0 TD
Adam Cella
Kyle Kurtz
39
Sig strikes landed
44
106
Sig strikes attempted
103
49
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adam Cella
"El Naturel"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
30
Blue corner
Kyle Kurtz
0-0
Career record