Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eric Irvin
Hugh Pulley
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Irvin: 49 sig / 4 TD ·
Pulley: 67 sig / 4 TD
Eric Irvin
Hugh Pulley
46
Sig strikes landed
44
102
Sig strikes attempted
104
64
Total strikes landed
59
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eric Irvin
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
29
Blue corner
Hugh Pulley
0-0
Career record
Height
72"