Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
AJ Siscoe
Garrett Mueller
77%
23%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
AJ Siscoe
Garrett Mueller
38
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
86
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
AJ Siscoe
"Let's Go"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Blue corner
Garrett Mueller
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
26