Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kain Royer
Enrique Watson
75%
25%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kain Royer
Enrique Watson
38
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
94
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kain Royer
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Enrique Watson
0-0
Career record