Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chandler
Derek Campos
77%
23%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chandler: 23 sig / 2 TD ·
Campos: 7 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chandler
Derek Campos
46
Sig strikes landed
45
133
Sig strikes attempted
132
63
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
Derek Campos
"The Stallion"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
27