Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dan O'Connor
Miles McDonald
65%
35%
Why
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
O'Connor: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
McDonald: 74 sig / 0 TD
Dan O'Connor
Miles McDonald
36
Sig strikes landed
44
86
Sig strikes attempted
99
72
Total strikes landed
71
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dan O'Connor
"Johnny Irish"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
33
Blue corner
Miles McDonald
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
24