Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
Sean Wilson
85%
15%
Why
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lawrence: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Wilson: 5 sig / 0 TD
Justin Lawrence
Sean Wilson
45
Sig strikes landed
45
96
Sig strikes attempted
103
62
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Sean Wilson
"P-Town"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
33