Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bobby Lashley
Dan Charles
83%
17%
Why
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lashley: 24 sig / 11 TD ·
Charles: 3 sig / 0 TD
Bobby Lashley
Dan Charles
46
Sig strikes landed
40
94
Sig strikes attempted
103
67
Total strikes landed
53
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bobby Lashley
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
Blue corner
Dan Charles
"The Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
30