Main
Bantamweight
Brad Pickett vs Thomas Almeida
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Thomas Almeida
24%
76%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
37
Age
Δ 13y
24
25-15
Career record
Δ 20 pp
23-5
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pickett: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 24 sig / 0 TD
Brad Pickett
Thomas Almeida
40
Sig strikes landed
58
112
Sig strikes attempted
119
53
Total strikes landed
68
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
115s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
W2
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—