Main
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson vs Brandon Thatch
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Brandon Thatch
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nelson: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Thatch: 8 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Brandon Thatch
28
Sig strikes landed
20
55
Sig strikes attempted
59
46
Total strikes landed
28
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
243s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
11-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—