Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Tim Means
31%
69%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
26-20
Career record
Δ 9 pp
34-17-1
L2
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brown: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Means: 16 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Tim Means
45
Sig strikes landed
57
100
Sig strikes attempted
122
54
Total strikes landed
67
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W4
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—