Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Swick
Alex Garcia
42%
58%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
15-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swick: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 24 sig / 5 TD
Mike Swick
Alex Garcia
16
Sig strikes landed
32
54
Sig strikes attempted
82
31
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
97s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Swick
"Quick"
15-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
15-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—