Prelims1
Welterweight
Cathal Pendred vs John Howard
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cathal Pendred
John Howard
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
18-4-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
24-14
W4
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pendred: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Howard: 48 sig / 0 TD
Cathal Pendred
John Howard
33
Sig strikes landed
24
71
Sig strikes attempted
50
61
Total strikes landed
40
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
191s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
L3
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—