Main
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dennis Bermudez
Jeremy Stephens
66%
34%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
17-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-24
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Bermudez: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Stephens: 38 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Bermudez
Jeremy Stephens
50
Sig strikes landed
46
117
Sig strikes attempted
107
74
Total strikes landed
61
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dennis Bermudez
"The Menace"
17-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—