🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Rory MacDonald
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
31-16
Career record
Δ 17 pp
20-4
W3
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Lawler: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
MacDonald: 86 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Rory MacDonald
57
Sig strikes landed
92
137
Sig strikes attempted
217
83
Total strikes landed
107
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
57s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
W3
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—