🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Chad Mendes vs Conor McGregor
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Conor McGregor
43%
57%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
19-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Mendes: 31 sig / 4 TD ·
McGregor: 46 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Conor McGregor
40
Sig strikes landed
43
83
Sig strikes attempted
101
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
123s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W5
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—