Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trevino
Johnny Case
25%
75%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
14-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trevino: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Case: 40 sig / 4 TD
Francisco Trevino
Johnny Case
34
Sig strikes landed
44
91
Sig strikes attempted
108
48
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
51s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Trevino
"Sitkayan"
14-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
W2
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
23-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—