Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alejandro Perez
Patrick Williams
88%
12%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
24-9-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
8-7
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Perez: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Williams: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alejandro Perez
Patrick Williams
42
Sig strikes landed
28
98
Sig strikes attempted
81
59
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
126s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alejandro Perez
"Turbo"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L1
Patrick Williams
"The Animal"
8-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—