Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Augusto Montano
Cathal Pendred
48%
52%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
16-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-4-1
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Montano: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Pendred: 17 sig / 4 TD
Augusto Montano
Cathal Pendred
31
Sig strikes landed
31
66
Sig strikes attempted
70
42
Total strikes landed
44
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Augusto Montano
"Dodger"
16-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W3
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—