Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Nate Marquardt
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 12y
36
21-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
35-20-2
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gastelum: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Marquardt: 18 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Nate Marquardt
33
Sig strikes landed
25
77
Sig strikes attempted
60
47
Total strikes landed
34
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—