Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
Charles Rosa
81%
19%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
23
Age
Δ 6y
29
22-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rodriguez: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Rosa: 39 sig / 5 TD
Yair Rodriguez
Charles Rosa
45
Sig strikes landed
26
99
Sig strikes attempted
79
66
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
172s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—