Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Eddie Alvarez
39%
61%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
22-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
29-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Melendez: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 31 sig / 3 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Eddie Alvarez
55
Sig strikes landed
57
152
Sig strikes attempted
140
82
Total strikes landed
78
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L1
Eddie Alvarez
29-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—