Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill
68%
32%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
16-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-16
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 32 sig / 2 TD ·
Hill: 27 sig / 0 TD
Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill
136
Sig strikes landed
112
225
Sig strikes attempted
225
112
Total strikes landed
101
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.7
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
106s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Angela Hill
"Overkill"
20-16
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—