Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Clay Collard
54%
46%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
27
Age
Δ 5y
22
24-13
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benitez: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Collard: 34 sig / 6 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Clay Collard
46
Sig strikes landed
41
106
Sig strikes attempted
128
51
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
101s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
24-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Clay Collard
"Cassius"
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—