🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Cain Velasquez vs Fabricio Werdum
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Fabricio Werdum
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
15-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
25-9-1
W4
Current streak
W5
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Velasquez: 88 sig / 4 TD ·
Werdum: 96 sig / 1 TD
Cain Velasquez
Fabricio Werdum
54
Sig strikes landed
52
120
Sig strikes attempted
95
76
Total strikes landed
75
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Cain Velasquez
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W5
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—