Prelims1
Middleweight
Uriah Hall vs Rafael Natal
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Uriah Hall
Rafael Natal
45%
55%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 2y
32
19-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-9-1
W3
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hall: 43 sig / 1 TD ·
Natal: 45 sig / 1 TD
Uriah Hall
Rafael Natal
45
Sig strikes landed
47
95
Sig strikes attempted
97
53
Total strikes landed
62
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Uriah Hall
"Prime Time"
19-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—