Prelims1
Welterweight
Mike Pyle vs Colby Covington
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
Colby Covington
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 13y
27
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-5
L1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pyle: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Covington: 26 sig / 2 TD
Mike Pyle
Colby Covington
23
Sig strikes landed
27
46
Sig strikes attempted
56
36
Total strikes landed
52
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
43s
Control time
305s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
Blue corner
W2
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—