Prelims2
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev vs Leo Kuntz
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Leo Kuntz
88%
12%
Why
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Makhachev: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Kuntz: 7 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Leo Kuntz
40
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
69
59
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
186s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Islam Makhachev
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
Blue corner
Leo Kuntz
"The Lion"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32