Prelims2
Flyweight
Justin Scoggins vs Josh Sampo
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Scoggins
Josh Sampo
69%
31%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
11-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-6
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Scoggins: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Sampo: 35 sig / 1 TD
Justin Scoggins
Josh Sampo
32
Sig strikes landed
18
60
Sig strikes attempted
35
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
218s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Justin Scoggins
11-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L2
Josh Sampo
"The Gremlin"
11-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—