Main
Heavyweight
Travis Browne vs Andrei Arlovski
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Travis Browne
Andrei Arlovski
69%
31%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
33
Age
Δ 4y
36
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
35-24
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Browne: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Arlovski: 51 sig / 0 TD
Travis Browne
Andrei Arlovski
28
Sig strikes landed
24
54
Sig strikes attempted
59
28
Total strikes landed
38
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
59s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W2
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—