Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
John Moraga
76%
24%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
29-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-7
W2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 63 sig / 4 TD ·
Moraga: 42 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
John Moraga
46
Sig strikes landed
34
112
Sig strikes attempted
87
61
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W2
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—