Main
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs John Makdessi
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
John Makdessi
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
37-17
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-9
W7
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cerrone: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Makdessi: 72 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
John Makdessi
63
Sig strikes landed
60
139
Sig strikes attempted
116
69
Total strikes landed
64
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—