Prelims1
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Sam Alvey
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
38
Age
Δ 8y
29
14-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
34-18-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kelly: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 8 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Kelly
Sam Alvey
30
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
112
36
Total strikes landed
47
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
26s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniel Kelly
14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
W2
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—