Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Bec Rawlings vs Lisa Ellis
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bec Rawlings
Lisa Ellis
77%
23%
Why
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
7-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
15-12
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rawlings: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellis: 7 sig / 1 TD
Bec Rawlings
Lisa Ellis
41
Sig strikes landed
47
84
Sig strikes attempted
105
58
Total strikes landed
74
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
341s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bec Rawlings
"Rowdy"
7-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
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Blue corner
L1
Lisa Ellis
15-12
Career record
Height
64"
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
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