Main
Lightweight
Jake Matthews vs James Vick
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
James Vick
86%
14%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
21
Age
Δ 8y
28
24-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-5
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Matthews: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Vick: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
James Vick
39
Sig strikes landed
31
84
Sig strikes attempted
80
55
Total strikes landed
45
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
W3
James Vick
"The Texecutioner"
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—