Main
Featherweight
Thiago Tavares vs Brian Ortega
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Brian Ortega
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
31
Age
Δ 6y
24
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-5
W2
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tavares: 39 sig / 6 TD ·
Ortega: 41 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Brian Ortega
27
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
60
45
Total strikes landed
40
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Thiago Tavares
22-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-0