Main
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier vs Yancy Medeiros
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Yancy Medeiros
86%
14%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
26
Age
Δ 1y
28
31-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-8
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Medeiros: 6 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Yancy Medeiros
39
Sig strikes landed
27
79
Sig strikes attempted
64
53
Total strikes landed
35
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Yancy Medeiros
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—