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Joe Soto vs Anthony Birchak

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Soto
Anthony Birchak
67% 33%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Soto: 1 sig / 0 TD · Birchak: 16 sig / 0 TD
Joe Soto
Anthony Birchak
41
Sig strikes landed
49
116
Sig strikes attempted
119
61
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
105s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Joe Soto

"One Bad Mofo"
18-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
L1

Anthony Birchak

"El Toro"
16-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—