Main
Bantamweight
Francisco Rivera vs Alex Caceres
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Francisco Rivera
Alex Caceres
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
11-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-16
L2
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rivera: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Caceres: 0 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Rivera
Alex Caceres
36
Sig strikes landed
46
80
Sig strikes attempted
102
44
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
L2
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—