Main
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell vs Matt Mitrione
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Matt Mitrione
90%
10%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
82"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
40-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-5
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rothwell: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitrione: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Matt Mitrione
26
Sig strikes landed
26
49
Sig strikes attempted
48
38
Total strikes landed
33
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
72%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
W3
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—