Prelims1
Welterweight
Brian Ebersole vs Omari Akhmedov
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ebersole
Omari Akhmedov
83%
17%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
52-18-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ebersole: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Akhmedov: 15 sig / 0 TD
Brian Ebersole
Omari Akhmedov
26
Sig strikes landed
29
61
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
153s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
52-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W1
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—