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Ricardo Abreu vs Jake Collier

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ricardo Abreu
Jake Collier
59% 41%
Why
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
6-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
13-11
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Abreu: 47 sig / 3 TD · Collier: 67 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Abreu
Jake Collier
33
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ricardo Abreu

"Demente"
6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner
L1

Jake Collier

"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
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