Prelims1
Lightweight
Joe Proctor vs Justin Edwards
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Proctor
Justin Edwards
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
11-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Proctor: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 63 sig / 2 TD
Joe Proctor
Justin Edwards
31
Sig strikes landed
30
72
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
86s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Proctor
11-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
L2
Justin Edwards
"Fast Eddy"
9-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—