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Tim Boetsch vs Dan Henderson

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Dan Henderson
54% 46%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 10y
45
21-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
32-16
L1
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Boetsch: 3 sig / 0 TD · Henderson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Dan Henderson
38
Sig strikes landed
25
67
Sig strikes attempted
50
49
Total strikes landed
36
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tim Boetsch

"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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L UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
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W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
L2

Dan Henderson

"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—