Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mark Munoz
Luke Barnatt
35%
65%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
14-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-5
L3
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Munoz: 35 sig / 9 TD ·
Barnatt: 42 sig / 1 TD
Mark Munoz
Luke Barnatt
31
Sig strikes landed
49
75
Sig strikes attempted
117
40
Total strikes landed
58
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
188s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
L2
Luke Barnatt
"The Bigslow"
13-5
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—