Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
AJ McKee
Marcos Bonilla
89%
11%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McKee: 1 sig / 2 TD ·
Bonilla: 1 sig / 0 TD
AJ McKee
Marcos Bonilla
43
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
88
86
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
AJ McKee
"Mercenary"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Blue corner
Marcos Bonilla
"Murder Marx"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"