Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chad George
Mark Vorgeas
87%
13%
Why
—
Current streak
D1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
George: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Vorgeas: 2 sig / 0 TD
Chad George
Mark Vorgeas
44
Sig strikes landed
44
95
Sig strikes attempted
96
61
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chad George
"Savage"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner
D1
Mark Vorgeas
5-3-2
Career record
Height
70"
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—