Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Brian Rogers
72%
28%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Beltran: 119 sig / 0 TD ·
Rogers: 81 sig / 0 TD
Joey Beltran
Brian Rogers
45
Sig strikes landed
49
111
Sig strikes attempted
116
59
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Brian Rogers
"The Professional Predator"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
31