Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Saad Awad
Rob Sinclair
85%
15%
Why
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Awad: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Sinclair: 18 sig / 0 TD
Saad Awad
Rob Sinclair
45
Sig strikes landed
43
114
Sig strikes attempted
98
62
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Saad Awad
"Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
32
Blue corner
Rob Sinclair
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
35